How does seasonality affect physical performance in football?

With playing styles ever-evolving, one constant remains: physical performance is critical. But how stable is that performance across a season? Are there predictable patterns that appear year after year - and if so, could understanding them change the way clubs approach scouting, recruitment, and player evaluation?

We used SkillCorner Physical Data across multiple seasons, to explore the question of seasonality in physical performance and focused on two key metrics*:

• Metres Per Minute (MPM)¹ – the total distance covered per minute of ball-in-play
• High Intensity Count (HIC)² – a combination of high-speed running (HSR)³ and sprint⁴ actions

Both were adjusted per 60 minutes of ball-in-play to ensure fair comparisons across matches and competitions.

*Definitions:

• ¹ Metres Per Minute (MPM): Total distance covered divided per number of minutes.
• ² High Intensity Count (HIC): Sum of Count HSR³ and Count Sprint⁴.
• ³ High Sprint Rate (HSR): Discrete activity between 20 and 25 hm/h, sustained for at least 0.7s.
• ⁴ Count Sprint: Discrete activity exceeding 25 km/h, sustained for at least 0.7s.

Our aim here is to highlight trends that may pose interesting questions for clubs to explore within their own contexts. Here's what we found.

Benchmarking scope: competitions & seasons

• ¹Impacted by Covid
• ²Impacted due to FIFA World Cup running in December 2022

The physical bell curve in the 'Big Five'

Looking at the top five European leagues, our analysis showed a recurring pattern: physical metrics, particularly MPM, consistently form a bell-shaped curve throughout the season. Players typically hit peak output mid-season, before tapering off toward the end.

METRES PER MINUTE - 'BIG FIVE'

While HIC followed a slightly more erratic trajectory, it broadly mirrored this pattern - suggesting that both distance covered and intensity of actions may be subject to the same cyclical forces.

METRES PER MINUTE - 'BIG FIVE'

This raises an interesting consideration: what might be driving these fluctuations?

Climate as a possible factor

To test whether environmental conditions like temperature may influence these patterns, we turned to leagues that operate on a summer calendar (March - November) rather than a winter one. (JAPAN, KOREA, NORWAY, SWEDEN, USA)

What we found was a reversed bell curve - teams in these competitions hit their lowest physical outputs around the peak of summer. This suggests a potential climate effect: cooler months may be more conducive to higher physical performance, while hotter conditions could lead to natural decline.

METERS PER MINUTE - SUMMER LEAGUES

HI ACTIVITY COUNT - SUMMER LEAGUES

Whether clubs account for this when scouting players across different climates or hemispheres is another question worth exploring.

Do high-stakes moments sustain physical output?

Another angle we examined was the influence of competitive stakes. The hypothesis: when the pressure ramps up - such as in playoff phases or title runs - do physical outputs remain elevated?

Leagues like the Belgian Pro League, which feature end-of-season split phases, provided a useful lens. In these competitions, MPM and HIC both rise early in the season - but unlike typical leagues, the drop-off is often less pronounced as teams fight for every point through to May.

This reinforces that context matters. Pressure, competition format, and match importance could all play a role in sustaining physical performance levels deeper into the season.

METERS PER MINUTE - SPLIT PHASE LEAGUES

HI ACTIVITY COUNT - SPLIT PHASE LEAGUES

What this might mean for clubs

While this research doesn't prescribe a specific course of action, it does raise some compelling questions for clubs to consider:

• Could scouting reports be biased by the timing in the season a player is assessed?
• Are clubs inadvertently undervaluing or overvaluing players based on physical outputs influenced by seasonal or climate conditions?
• Is there an opportunity for clubs to break the trend—and maintain higher physical performance for longer than their competitors?

It also opens interesting lines of thought for performance and sports science departments: 

• Should return-to-play protocols or load management be adjusted depending on the time of year?
• Is it possible to break the bell curve and outperform the competition over the course of the season?

The role of data in framing the right questions

At SkillCorner, we believe that high-quality, contextual data doesn't just provide answers - it helps make smarter decisions. This research into seasonal physical trends is just one example of how our Physical Data can support deeper thinking across multiple departments, from recruitment and scouting to performance planning and player development.

Interested in learning more?

Contact the SkillCorner team to explore how our data can unlock new perspectives across your operations.

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